Bitcoin Halving Eve: Miner Hoarding Wave and Price Dynamics Analysis

Halving Countdown: Miner Hoarding Wave

As the countdown to Bitcoin's fourth halving event enters its final stretch, on-chain data reveals a rare wave of hoarding among miners. According to Glassnode data, miner wallet balances have been steadily climbing over the past three months, reaching levels not seen since the 2021 bull market. This behavior is interpreted by the market as a strong expectation of price appreciation post-halving—when block rewards are halved, the supply of new coins will drop sharply. If demand remains stable or grows, the supply-demand imbalance could drive prices higher.

Historically, miners tend to reduce selling and increase holdings in the months leading up to a halving. Before the 2020 halving, miner net positions turned positive, and Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high within a year. Currently, the scale of miner hoarding mirrors the 2020 cycle, but the market environment is more complex: institutional capital is flowing in via ETFs, while macroeconomic uncertainty persists. Miners' choices are becoming a key variable in this price game.

Supply-Demand Balance: How the Halving Reshapes the Market

The core logic of Bitcoin's halving lies in supply-side contraction. Every four years, block rewards are halved, reducing daily new coin production from approximately 900 to 450. At current prices, this means about $1.6 billion less in annual selling pressure. According to CoinMetrics analysis, the daily volume of Bitcoin sold by miners could drop by 30%-50% after the halving, providing natural buying support for the market.

However, supply-demand dynamics are not one-sided. Miner hoarding reduces circulating supply and pushes prices up; but if prices fail to rise as expected, the financial pressure from hoarding could trigger a concentrated sell-off. Before the 2023 halving, some miners were forced to sell due to cost pressures, causing short-term price volatility. Currently, miners' average production cost is around $40,000 to $50,000, and post-halving costs will double, forcing miners to bet on higher prices.

Historical Cycles: Patterns and Variables

Looking back at the first three halvings, price trends show a clear pattern: prices often rise in the months before the halving, may correct shortly after, but then enter a major uptrend within 12-18 months. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from about $12 to $1,000 in 2013; after the 2016 halving, from about $650 to nearly $20,000 in 2017; and after the 2020 halving, from about $9,000 to $69,000 in 2021.

But history does not simply repeat. This halving faces new variables: after Bitcoin broke $100,000 in 2024, the market has partially priced in the halving expectation; meanwhile, the introduction of ETFs has made institutional capital a new source of demand, potentially smoothing volatility around the halving. According to CoinDesk analysis, if institutions continue to accumulate, the post-halving supply gap will be filled faster, and the price uptrend could be steeper.

Game Focus: Miners vs. Market

Currently, the miner hoarding wave and market sentiment form a delicate balance. On one hand, miners reducing sales directly lowers market selling pressure; on the other hand, if prices stagnate, miners may be forced to sell after the halving to cover costs. This game is reflected in the options market: according to Deribit data, call option open interest expiring after the halving is significantly higher than put options, indicating a consensus for medium- to long-term bullishness, but short-term volatility expectations remain high.

Analysts point out that the halving event itself is already fully anticipated, but the actual impact depends on the resonance between miner behavior and demand after the halving. If miners continue to hoard until after the halving, and ETF inflows accelerate, it could create a double positive for supply and demand; conversely, if a deteriorating macro environment leads to demand contraction, miners' hoarding could become a future selling risk.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and historical performance of halving events does not guarantee future results. Investors should fully understand the risks and make cautious decisions based on their own circumstances.