Bitcoin Halving Eve: Miners Accumulate and Market Dynamics Analyzed

Halving Countdown: A Structural Reshaping of Supply and Demand

Bitcoin's fourth halving event is expected around April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This mechanism will cut the daily new supply of Bitcoin from approximately 900 BTC to about 450 BTC, directly compressing the market's fresh supply. Against the backdrop of continuous accumulation by spot ETFs and rising institutional demand, the supply contraction from the halving is seen as a core driver for long-term price appreciation. According to a CoinShares report, miners have shown a clear tendency to hoard coins before the halving, with on-chain data indicating miner wallet balances hitting a multi-month high in Q1 2024.

Miners Hoarding: From 'Selling to Pay Bills' to 'Holding for Gains'

Historically, miners tend to reduce selling before a halving, waiting for higher prices post-event to realize greater profits. Currently, this behavior is more pronounced: Glassnode data shows that miner transfers to exchanges fell to a two-year low in the 60 days before the halving, suggesting miners prefer to hold rather than liquidate immediately. Meanwhile, the hashrate remains near all-time highs before the halving, reflecting miner confidence in long-term returns. However, after the halving, older mining rigs will face pressure to exit due to halved revenues, potentially causing short-term hashrate fluctuations, but the increased share of efficient rigs will bolster network security.

Market Dynamics: Price Expectations Amid Bull-Bear Tensions

The halving event itself is widely anticipated by the market, but its actual impact often unfolds over months. In the short term, sentiment is optimistic before the halving, though some traders fear a 'sell the news' correction. According to CoinGecko, after Bitcoin broke $100,000 in 2024, the price has been trading in a high range before the halving, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war around key psychological levels. From a long-term perspective, the halving combined with ETF-driven institutional inflows could push Bitcoin into a new supply-demand imbalance cycle. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains an external variable: if rate cut expectations rise, risk assets could gain additional support; conversely, a tightening environment may dampen speculative fervor.

Hashrate and Network Effects: A Test of Resilience Post-Halving

After the halving, miner revenues will be cut in half, and if Bitcoin's price does not rise correspondingly, some high-cost miners will be forced to exit, leading to a drop in hashrate. However, historically, hashrate has recovered and hit new highs within months after each halving, as prices eventually adjust to the new supply rhythm. Currently, Bitcoin's network hashrate has exceeded 600 EH/s, a record high, indicating miner optimism about post-halving prices. Additionally, halving events often attract media and public attention, bringing in new users and creating a positive feedback loop.

Risk Disclaimer

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the halving event may trigger sharp short-term fluctuations. Investors should fully understand the risks and make prudent decisions based on their own circumstances.