Bitcoin Halving Effect: Reduced Miner Selling Pressure May Fuel Next Bull Run

Bitcoin Halving Effect Emerges: Reduced Miner Selling Pressure May Fuel Next Bull Run

Since its inception, the Bitcoin halving has been viewed as a key turning point in market cycles. In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth block reward halving, reducing miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This structural change is quietly reshaping market supply and demand dynamics through evolving miner behavior data. Recent data shows miner holdings are rising steadily, while selling pressure has notably declined. Market analysts believe this could build critical momentum for the next bull market.

Supply Shock After Halving: Miner Revenue Structure Shifts

The halving directly cut miners' daily new Bitcoin output in half. According to industry estimates, miners produced about 900 BTC per day before the halving, dropping to around 450 BTC afterward. This means that even if the price remains unchanged, miners face short-term pressure on fiat-denominated revenue. However, the market has not seen the expected wave of large-scale selling. Data from CoinMetrics shows that net miner inflows to exchanges fell by about 30% to 40% in the months following the halving compared to before, indicating miners prefer to hold rather than immediately cash out.

Behind this shift in miner behavior is an optimized revenue structure. As Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark in 2024, the share of miner revenue from transaction fees increased significantly. In the months after the halving, fee income accounted for over 15% of total miner revenue at times, partially cushioning the impact of reduced block rewards. This structural change has reduced the urgency for miners to sell under pressure, thereby easing supply-side pressure on the market.

Miner Holdings Data: From 'Selling Pressure Source' to 'Reservoir'

The holding strategy of the miner community is undergoing a historic shift. According to Glassnode's tracking of miner address balances, total miner holdings did not decline significantly after the halving; instead, they showed slight growth in some periods. This trend contrasts sharply with previous halving cycles: after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, miners were forced to reduce holdings due to sharp revenue declines. Currently, miners are more inclined to view Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset rather than a short-term cash-out tool.

Analysts point out that the positive impact of reduced miner selling pressure on market supply and demand should not be underestimated. Against a backdrop of daily Bitcoin trading volume of around $20 billion, the daily new selling volume from miners has dropped from about 900 BTC to 450 BTC, equivalent to reducing about 0.02% of circulating supply pressure. While the absolute number is small, this marginal improvement on the supply side could be amplified during periods of fragile market sentiment or tight liquidity, becoming an important price support factor.

Supply-Demand Rebalancing: Paving the Way for the Next Bull Run

The core logic of the Bitcoin halving is to drive long-term price appreciation through supply contraction. Historically, a significant bull market typically follows 12 to 18 months after a halving. With current miner selling pressure declining, combined with continued institutional accumulation through ETFs, the market supply-demand balance is gradually tilting toward buyers. According to a CoinShares report, institutional Bitcoin products saw net inflows of over $3 billion in the third quarter of 2024, further absorbing the new supply after the halving.

It is worth noting that miner behavior is not the only variable affecting price. Macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and market sentiment are equally critical. However, as one of the most important natural sellers in the Bitcoin ecosystem, miners' reduced willingness to sell undoubtedly provides a more solid bottom support for the market. If this trend continues, coupled with a potential future rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin could see a new round of price discovery in 2025.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the halving effect may deviate from historical patterns due to changes in the macroeconomic environment, technical risks, or regulatory policy adjustments. Investors should fully understand the risks and make independent decisions.