Bitcoin Halving Effect Emerges: Miner Daily Output Plummets, Supply Tightening Analysis

Bitcoin Halving Effect Emerges: Miner Daily Output Plummets, Supply Tightening Expected

With Bitcoin's fourth halving completed in April 2024, block rewards dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reducing miners' daily new output from approximately 900 BTC to about 450 BTC. This structural shift is reshaping the supply-demand dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, with participants focusing on the potential price support from post-halving supply tightening.

Miner Revenue Under Pressure, Hashrate Experiences Short-Term Volatility

Post-halving, miner revenues face a dual squeeze: block rewards halved, and while transaction fee share has risen, it hasn't fully compensated for the revenue gap. According to Blockchain.com data, the Bitcoin network hashrate initially dropped about 10% after the halving, as some older mining machines were forced offline due to electricity costs exceeding revenue. However, with the deployment of next-generation efficient miners (e.g., Bitmain S21 series), hashrate has recently recovered to near pre-halving levels, indicating a market adjustment period of survival of the fittest.

Supply Tightening Expectations Rise, Secondary Market Sentiment Divided

The sharp drop in miner daily output means approximately 450 fewer new Bitcoins entering circulation each day. On the demand side, spot Bitcoin ETFs have consistently attracted institutional capital since their approval in early 2024. According to CoinShares data, global Bitcoin ETF assets under management surpassed $150 billion by Q1 2025. The expectation of supply-demand imbalance has led some analysts to suggest that after Bitcoin broke $100,000 in 2024, prices could rise further as the halving effect continues to unfold. However, others note that while miner selling pressure has decreased, early holders' profit-taking may partially offset the supply tightening effect.

Hashrate and Price Correlation Analysis

Historical data shows that the speed of hashrate recovery after halvings often correlates positively with price trends. After the 2016 halving, hashrate doubled within six months, while Bitcoin's price rose about 200% over the same period. After the 2020 halving, hashrate recovered and hit new highs within four months, with prices subsequently reaching an all-time high of around $69,000 in 2021. Currently, despite short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend in hashrate remains intact, interpreted by the market as a signal of miner optimism. However, it's important to note that hashrate is influenced by multiple factors including electricity prices, miner efficiency, and regulatory policies, so its causal relationship with price is not absolute.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the halving effect may deviate from historical patterns due to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, or technological developments. Investors should fully understand the risks and make prudent decisions.