Bitcoin Halving Countdown: Miner Pressure and Market Expectation Game Analysis

Halving Countdown: Miner Pressure and Market Expectation Game

The fourth Bitcoin halving is just weeks away, an event that occurs every four years and will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The market is closely watching miner operational costs, hashrate changes, and divergent expectations for post-halving price trends. This article analyzes from three dimensions: miner survival pressure, network hashrate dynamics, and the long-short battle.

Miner Operational Costs: Break-Even Line Under Test

After the halving, the daily new supply from miners will drop from about 900 BTC to about 450 BTC. According to industry estimates, the all-in cost (including electricity, maintenance, and depreciation) for current mainstream mining rigs (e.g., Antminer S19 series) is around $25,000 to $30,000 per BTC. If the price remains near $60,000 after the halving, miners can still maintain profitability; but if the price falls below $40,000, high-cost miners will face losses. According to F2Pool data, about 30% of older mining rigs (e.g., S9 series) may be forced to shut down after the halving, as their electricity costs are close to or exceed the value of output.

Hashrate Changes: Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Trends

Bitcoin's network hashrate has recently been maintained at an all-time high of around 600 EH/s. After the halving, as inefficient miners exit, the hashrate may see a short-term decline, but historically, the hashrate has recovered and set new highs within a few months after each halving. According to CoinMetrics data, the hashrate rebounded 20% within three months after the 2020 halving. Currently, miners are accelerating upgrades to new-generation mining rigs with better energy efficiency (e.g., Antminer S21, Whatsminer M66), which helps reduce unit costs. Some analysts believe that the resilience of the hashrate reflects miners' optimistic expectations for post-halving prices.

Market Expectation Divergence: Bullish and Bearish Logic Coexist

Bulls argue that the supply squeeze caused by the halving will push prices higher, combined with Bitcoin's all-time high above $100,000 in 2024 and continued institutional accumulation through spot ETFs, a new bull market may begin after the halving. According to a CoinShares report, institutional funds have seen net inflows for several consecutive weeks before the halving. Bears point out that the halving benefits have already been priced in, and miner selling pressure may intensify around the halving—some miners may hoard coins in advance and cash out after the halving to cover costs. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., Fed interest rate policy) may weigh on risk assets. According to a Fed statement, interest rates may remain high for longer than expected, which pressures volatile assets like Bitcoin.

Focus of the Game: Supply-Demand Rebalancing and Sentiment Cycles

The core impact of the halving is to change supply-demand dynamics. Currently, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate will drop from about 1.7% to about 0.85%, lower than the long-term inflation rate of gold. However, short-term prices are still driven by sentiment: according to Alternative.me data, the Fear and Greed Index is in the "greed" zone before the halving, indicating optimistic market sentiment. Historical data shows that significant gains usually occur 6-12 months after the halving, but price movements on the halving day or week are limited. Investors should be wary of the short-term pullback risk of "buy the rumor, sell the news."

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the halving event may trigger sharp price fluctuations. Investors should fully understand the risks and make prudent decisions based on their own circumstances.