Bitcoin Halving Countdown: Miner Selling Pressure or Bull Run Prelude? On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment Analysis

Bitcoin Halving Countdown: Miner Selling Pressure or Bull Run Prelude?

As the fourth Bitcoin halving event approaches, the market is once again focusing on this key mechanism that occurs every four years. The halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, directly impacting miners' revenue structure. On-chain data shows a recent increase in the amount of Bitcoin transferred by miners to exchanges, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure. However, historical patterns and the macro liquidity environment provide support for a long-term bullish narrative. This article analyzes the long-short battle ahead of the halving from three dimensions: miner behavior, hashrate changes, and market sentiment.

Miner Behavior: Selling Signal or Normal Adjustment?

According to on-chain analytics platforms like Glassnode, miner wallet balances have shown a phased decline in the weeks before the halving, with some older miners transferring Bitcoin to exchanges. Some analysts interpret this as "pre-halving profit-taking," where miners lock in profits to cover electricity and equipment costs in anticipation of a sharp drop in revenue after the halving. However, from a historical cycle perspective, miner selling before a halving is a routine operation—similar trends occurred before the 2016 and 2020 halvings, yet prices subsequently entered long-term upward channels. Notably, the current scale of miner selling remains manageable relative to the total circulating supply, and institutional and ETF fund inflows are providing a counterbalance.

Hashrate Changes: Short-Term Volatility and Long-Term Stability

Bitcoin's total network hashrate has continued to hit new highs ahead of the halving, surpassing 600 EH/s (exahashes per second). This apparent contradiction is worth pondering: on one hand, miners expect revenue to halve after the event, theoretically reducing investment in inefficient hashrate. On the other hand, the deployment of new-generation efficient mining rigs (such as Bitmain's S21 series) and the expansion of mining farms in low-cost energy regions are driving hashrate upward against the trend. After the halving, an estimated 15%-20% of older mining models are expected to exit the network as they become unable to cover electricity costs, leading to a temporary hashrate decline. However, in the long term, as prices revalue and equipment iterates, hashrate will stabilize again. Historical data shows that hashrate typically recovers to pre-halving levels within 3-6 months after the event.

Market Sentiment: The Threshold Between Fear and Greed

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index compiled by Alternative.me, market sentiment ahead of the halving is in the "neutral to greedy" range, lower than the "extreme greed" seen at the peak of the 2021 bull market but significantly higher than the depths of the 2022 bear market. This "cautiously optimistic" sentiment structure often corresponds to a period of accumulation before a trend begins. Social media discussion heat shows that retail investors' perception of the halving has shifted from "buy the rumor, sell the news" to "structural bull market catalyst," while institutional investors are more focused on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment products saw net inflows of approximately $500 million in the week before the halving, with Bitcoin products accounting for over 90%, indicating strong institutional allocation intentions.

The Core Battle: Short-Term Selling Pressure vs. Long-Term Scarcity

In the short term, miner selling pressure and profit-taking by some holders may trigger price volatility, especially on the day of or the day after the halving, when markets often experience "buy the rumor, sell the news" fluctuations. However, the long-term logic is more robust: after the halving, Bitcoin's annualized inflation rate will drop from about 1.7% to about 0.85%, lower than the official inflation targets of most sovereign currencies. This increased scarcity, combined with expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle in 2024 and the compliant capital channels provided by Bitcoin ETFs, creates a dual benefit of "supply shock + demand expansion." The number of on-chain holding addresses continues to grow, especially addresses holding 0.1 BTC or more, which have reached an all-time high, indicating that long-term holders (LTHs) are accumulating.

Conclusion: Probability of a Bull Market Prelude Outweighs Selling Pressure Outbreak

Combining on-chain data and the macro environment, this halving is more likely to be the starting point of a new bull market rather than its end. While miner selling pressure poses a short-term disturbance, it is unlikely to reverse the long-term trend determined by supply and demand dynamics. Investors should focus on the speed of hashrate reshuffling after the halving, the sustainability of ETF fund inflows, and the timing of the Fed's policy shift. History may not repeat exactly, but cyclical patterns deserve respect.

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the halving event may trigger sharp short-term fluctuations. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and pay attention to asset diversification.