Bitcoin Halving Effects Emerge: Miner Revenue Plunges, Hashrate Competition Intensifies

Bitcoin Halving Effects Emerge: Miner Revenue Plunges, Hashrate Competition Intensifies

In April 2024, the Bitcoin network successfully completed its fourth block reward halving, reducing the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This quadrennial event has historically acted as a catalyst for price cycles. However, the post-halving market performance is not instantaneous. Miners are the first to feel the impact, with revenue structures undergoing dramatic shifts and the hashrate market entering a new phase of competition. This article delves into the initial effects of the halving from three dimensions: changes in miner revenue, hashrate adjustments, and subsequent price impacts.

1. Miner Revenue Structure: Shifting from Block Rewards to Transaction Fees

Post-halving, the amount of Bitcoin miners earn per block is directly halved. Without a proportional increase in price, miner revenue denominated in fiat currency has significantly declined. According to CoinMetrics data, in the first month after the halving, miners' average daily revenue dropped by approximately 40% compared to pre-halving levels, with some older mining machines operating at a loss.

Notably, the share of transaction fees in total miner revenue has risen sharply. Before the halving, fees typically accounted for less than 5% of revenue; after the halving, due to network congestion and some users voluntarily increasing fees to expedite transaction confirmations, the fee share surged to over 15% at times. This structural shift means miners are no longer solely reliant on block rewards, with transaction fee income becoming an important supplementary source. However, fee income is highly volatile and cannot fully compensate for the reward reduction.

2. Hashrate Market Adjustment: Mining Rig Iteration and Network Difficulty Competition

The sharp revenue decline has directly led to a divergence among miners. According to BTC.com data, the Bitcoin network hashrate fell from an all-time high of approximately 600 EH/s to around 550 EH/s post-halving, a drop of about 8%. Some miners using older, high-power-consumption rigs (such as the Antminer S9 series) were forced to shut down, while those with advanced rigs (like the Antminer S21 and Whatsminer M60) continued operations due to their low-power advantages.

The hashrate decline led to an approximately 5% reduction in Bitcoin network difficulty during the subsequent adjustment cycle, which somewhat alleviated the survival pressure on remaining miners. However, the hashrate competition is far from over: on one hand, mining rig manufacturers are accelerating the launch of new, more energy-efficient products to capture market share; on the other hand, some miners are shifting to other Proof-of-Work (PoW) coins (such as Litecoin and Dogecoin) to diversify risk. The adjustment in the hashrate market is essentially a rebalancing of costs and revenues by miners, and a natural process of industry survival of the fittest.

3. Price Impact: When Will the Halving Effect Materialize?

Historical data shows that after the first three halvings, Bitcoin prices reached new all-time highs within 12 to 18 months. Before the 2024 halving, Bitcoin had already surpassed the $100,000 mark, leading to divergent views on post-halving price trends. Optimists argue that reduced supply, combined with continued institutional capital inflows (such as the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs), will drive prices higher. Pessimists contend that the halving effect has already been priced in, and macroeconomic factors (like the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy) may suppress risk asset performance.

In the short term, reduced miner selling pressure provides some support for prices—the daily new supply of Bitcoin from miners has dropped from about 900 BTC to around 450 BTC, easing sell-side pressure. However, long-term price trends depend on demand, particularly ETF inflows, regulatory policies across countries, and the macroeconomic cycle. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $100,000, with the market awaiting new catalysts.

4. Industry Outlook: Miner Transformation and Ecosystem Restructuring

The halving not only affects miners but also drives a broader restructuring of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Miners are beginning to explore diversified revenue models, such as participating in decentralized finance (DeFi) staking and offering hashrate leasing services. Additionally, some mining farms are turning to green energy to reduce operating costs, aligning with ESG investment trends.

For investors, market volatility may increase post-halving. Risks to monitor include selling pressure from miners' reduced revenue and changes in network security due to hashrate adjustments. However, historical patterns suggest that halvings often mark the beginning of a new bull market, with the key being patience for the rebalancing of supply and demand.

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment should be approached with caution. Data cited in this article are from public sources, and their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.