Bitcoin Halving Eve: Miner Selling Pressure vs. ETF Inflows Intensify, Short-Term Risks Clash with Long-Term Bullish Logic

Halving Eve: Miner Selling Pressure vs. ETF Inflows Intensify

As the countdown to Bitcoin's fourth halving event begins, the market is experiencing an unprecedented tug-of-war between bulls and bears. On one hand, miners face a sharp drop in revenue due to the block reward halving, potentially triggering a wave of selling. On the other hand, sustained capital inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are providing new demand support. This battle between miner selling pressure and institutional buying is becoming a key variable determining short-term price trends.

Miner Selling Pressure: A Survival Choice Before Halving

The Bitcoin halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, directly halving the daily new supply of Bitcoin. According to industry data, the network's total hash rate remains near all-time highs, but after the halving, some older mining machines may face shutdown risks. To cope with the revenue decline, miners often hoard Bitcoin before the halving and then sell it in a concentrated manner around the event to replenish operating capital. This historical pattern has been observed in the previous three halvings—weeks to months before the halving, the volume of Bitcoin transferred from miner wallets to exchanges typically rises significantly.

However, this cycle is unique because the miner community has become more diversified. Large publicly traded mining companies have raised ample fiat currency through bond issuances and equity financing, and some miners have even locked in hash rate contracts in advance. Therefore, while selling pressure is expected, the actual impact may be weaker than in the past. According to on-chain data tracking platforms, the net inflow of Bitcoin from miners to exchanges has increased recently but remains below the peak levels seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.

ETF Inflows: Institutional Buying as a Counterbalance

In stark contrast to miner selling pressure, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing Bitcoin at an unprecedented pace. Since their approval in January 2024, multiple ETF products have seen cumulative net inflows exceeding tens of billions of dollars. According to public reports, the daily trading volume of these ETFs has continued to expand before the halving, with some days even surpassing the trading volume of the spot Bitcoin market. Institutional investors allocating Bitcoin through ETFs are effectively removing Bitcoin from circulating supply—ETF issuers must purchase the corresponding amount of Bitcoin as underlying assets, creating a long-term lock-up effect.

This structural buying is reshaping market supply and demand dynamics. Some analysts suggest that if ETF inflows can cover miner selling pressure, price volatility around the halving could be significantly smoothed. Conversely, if ETF inflows slow or turn into net outflows, miner selling combined with weakening market sentiment could trigger a short-term correction.

Short-Term Risks vs. Long-Term Bullish Logic

In the short term, the halving event itself has been fully priced in by the market. Historical data shows that prices often experience volatility or even decline in the weeks following a halving. After the three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin experienced corrections of 10% to 30% within 30 to 60 days. Current market sentiment is highly sensitive, and any unexpected selling pressure or regulatory news could amplify volatility.

However, the long-term bullish logic remains intact. The halving will reduce Bitcoin's annual inflation rate from approximately 1.7% to about 0.85%, lower than gold's long-term inflation rate. Meanwhile, ETFs have lowered the barrier for traditional capital to enter the crypto market, with long-term funds such as pension funds and endowments gradually entering. According to research referenced by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin's narrative as a digital store of value is gaining more mainstream acceptance.

This conflict between short-term risks and long-term bullishness essentially reflects the growing pains of a market transitioning from retail dominance to institutional dominance. For investors, the eve of the halving may serve as a litmus test for investment logic—whether to avoid short-term uncertainty or bet on the long-term dividends of structural change, the answer will unfold in the coming months.