Bitcoin Halving Imminent: Will Miners HODL or Sell? On-Chain Data and Market Outlook

Bitcoin Halving Imminent: Will Miners HODL or Sell to Survive?

With the fourth Bitcoin halving event drawing near, the cryptocurrency market is once again focused on the behavioral choices of miners. The halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, directly impacting miners' revenue structures. In the tug-of-war between cost pressures and potential price appreciation, will miners choose to accumulate Bitcoin in anticipation of a price surge, or will they be forced to sell to maintain operations? On-chain data and market sentiment are sending mixed signals.

Direct Impact of Halving on Miner Revenue

The core mechanism of the Bitcoin halving is to cut the block reward in half every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years) until all bitcoins are mined by 2140. According to CoinMetrics data, miners currently produce about 900 BTC daily; after the halving, this will drop to 450 BTC. At Bitcoin's historical high of over $100,000 in 2024, daily miner revenue would plummet from approximately $90 million to $45 million. For mining farms where electricity costs account for 60%-70% of operating expenses, this change means a significant compression of profit margins.

According to F2Pool statistics, if Bitcoin's price remains below $60,000, about 30% of older-generation mining rigs (such as the Antminer S19 series) will face the risk of operating at a loss and being shut down after the halving. This has led to a divergence among miners: large publicly traded mining companies (e.g., Marathon Digital), with access to low-cost power contracts and financing, are more inclined to HODL; while smaller miners may be forced to sell some of their inventory to cover electricity and equipment maintenance costs.

On-Chain Data: Miner Accumulation and Selling Pressure Coexist

From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin balances in miner addresses show subtle changes before the halving. According to Glassnode data, the Miner Net Position Change indicator turned positive in the 30 days before the halving, suggesting that miners are accumulating Bitcoin overall. However, this trend is not uniform: some miners are locking in profits through over-the-counter (OTC) trades or decentralized exchanges to hedge against post-halving revenue uncertainty.

Notably, the Miner-to-Exchange Flow saw a slight uptick in the week before the halving, indicating increased short-term selling pressure. But historical patterns show that miner selling pressure typically eases within one to two months after the halving, as the market anticipates that the supply squeeze will push prices higher. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose from about $9,000 to nearly $60,000 within six months, rewarding miners who held their coins.

Hashrate Market: Short-Term Shakeout and Long-Term Upgrade

The impact of the halving on hashrate has already been anticipated. According to BTC.com data, the total Bitcoin network hashrate has been hovering around 600 EH/s before the halving, but a short-term decline of 10%-20% is expected afterward, mainly due to the exit of older mining rigs. This process is akin to "survival of the fittest": rigs with an energy efficiency ratio above 30 J/TH will be phased out, while next-generation miners (such as the Antminer S21 and Whatsminer M66), with lower power consumption, will dominate post-halving.

Miner behavior is thus polarizing: well-capitalized mining companies are accelerating equipment upgrades to maintain their hashrate share, while financially strained miners may resort to joint mining or hosting services to spread costs. According to Hashrate Index data, mining rig prices have already fallen by 15%-20% before the halving, reflecting market concerns about hashrate oversupply. However, in the long run, the hashrate shakeout helps improve network health and lays the foundation for the next bull market.

Market Supply and Demand: Will the Halving Trigger a "Supply Shock"?

The core narrative of the halving is that "supply tightening drives prices up." Bitcoin's current annual inflation rate will drop from about 1.7% to 0.85%, lower than gold's inflation rate of about 1.5%. According to CoinShares analysis, daily miner selling volume will decrease from about 900 BTC to 450 BTC after the halving, reducing supply by about 0.5%-1% of daily trading volume. Although this percentage seems small, in a stable demand environment, supply-demand imbalances could push prices higher.

However, the market is not solely driven by the halving. Factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, macroeconomic uncertainty, and ETF inflows are equally critical. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive weeks before the halving, indicating institutional investors' optimistic expectations for post-halving performance. But if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, triggering a sell-off in risk assets, the halving's positive impact could be offset.

Market Outlook: Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Bullish Logic Intact

Combining on-chain data and historical patterns, Bitcoin's price is likely to follow a "first dip, then rise" trajectory after the halving. In the short term (1-2 months), miner selling pressure and market sentiment fluctuations could lead to price consolidation in the $60,000-$80,000 range. However, in the medium term (3-6 months), the supply squeeze effect combined with ETF inflows could push Bitcoin to new highs. According to Pantera Capital's model, Bitcoin's average gain in the 12 months after the halving exceeds 400%, but history does not repeat itself exactly.

Miner behavior will be a key variable: if miners collectively HODL, market supply will tighten further, accelerating price increases; conversely, if miners sell off heavily, it could trigger a short-term correction. Investors should closely monitor on-chain indicators such as changes in miner address balances and exchange inflows.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the halving event may be affected by macroeconomic factors, regulatory policies, and technical risks. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and be aware of the possibility of significant asset price declines.