BofA sees August setting up as tough for stocks; dollar, gold favored

BofA warns Aug–Oct is S&P 500’s weakest stretch; dollar, bonds & gold often outperform.

BofA sees August setting up as tough for stocks; dollar, gold favored | Seeking Alpha

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Investors heading into August may want to keep one hand on the steering wheel and the other near the hedge button.

That's the takeaway from Bank of America Securities technical analyst Paul Ciana, whose latest seasonality report argues that historical market

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Quick Insights

How have S&P 500 returns typically performed from August to October?

Historically, this has been the weakest rolling three-month period for the S&P 500, with an average return of -0.02% and gains only 55% of the time since 1928.

Which assets have historically outperformed during August to October seasonality?

The U.S. dollar, gold, and government bonds have generally outperformed, with gold rising 61% of the time in this period, and bond yields tending to decline.

Which sectors or indices have been notable exceptions to August defensive trends?

The Dow Jones has been more resilient than other indices, and the Bloomberg Energy Index, along with crude oil prices, have posted gains during August, particularly in the second year of the U.S. presidential cycle.

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