Clarity Act May Open a 'Green Forest' for Bitcoin on July 4, but Bearish Shadows Linger?

The 'Green Forest' of the Clarity Act: A Regulatory Dawn for Bitcoin?

As July 4th, US Independence Day, approaches, a legislative proposal called the 'Clarity Act' is drawing widespread attention from US stock and crypto markets. The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, described by some analysts as a 'green forest' for Bitcoin—suggesting it could open a compliance channel for institutional investors, pushing Bitcoin from a fringe asset into the mainstream. However, beneath the optimism, concerns linger: do macro uncertainties, technical resistance, and potential regulatory battles mean the 'bear' is still lurking?

Core of the Clarity Act: How Does the Regulatory 'Green Light' Shine?

According to insiders, the Clarity Act's primary goal is to resolve the classification of digital assets like Bitcoin under US securities laws. Currently, jurisdictional disputes between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have long suppressed institutional participation. If passed, the bill could explicitly classify Bitcoin as a commodity rather than a security, exempting it from strict securities registration requirements. This is seen as the foundation of the 'green forest': once the compliance path is clear, large institutions like pension funds and mutual funds may feel more confident allocating to Bitcoin, thereby maturing its price discovery mechanism.

From a US stock linkage perspective, Bitcoin's 'compliance' could boost related concept stocks, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds large amounts of Bitcoin, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), and Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms (RIOT). These stocks surged when Bitcoin broke its all-time high of $100,000 in 2024, but later corrected due to regulatory uncertainty. If the Clarity Act is enacted, it could provide a new valuation anchor for these assets.

Optimistic Side of the 'Green Forest': Institutional Entry and Liquidity Improvement

Supporters argue that the biggest benefit of the Clarity Act is unleashing pent-up institutional demand. According to CoinShares data, institutional crypto product inflows hit a quarterly high in 2024, but plummeted in early 2025 due to SEC enforcement actions against several exchanges. If the bill passes, Bitcoin ETF holdings could accelerate, as reduced compliance risk attracts more traditional financial participants. Additionally, a clear regulatory framework could help stabilize market sentiment, reducing sharp volatility driven by policy rumors—a long-standing criticism of Bitcoin as a 'high-risk asset'.

From a broader US stock market perspective, Bitcoin's 'green forest' effect could spill over into tech stocks. Bitcoin mining's energy consumption overlaps with AI computing demand, and compliance could encourage more tech companies to explore blockchain applications. For example, chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) could indirectly benefit from dual demand for mining and AI. However, this transmission chain remains uncertain, and investors should be wary of short-term speculative risks.

Bear Patrol: Shadows of Macro Headwinds and Regulatory Battles

Despite the bright prospects painted by the Clarity Act, bears have not retreated. First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a sword of Damocles over Bitcoin. Inflation data in 2025 has consistently exceeded targets, reigniting expectations of rate hikes. According to Fed statements, interest rates may stay high for an extended period, pressuring 'zero-yield assets' like Bitcoin—since in a high-rate environment, investors prefer yield-bearing assets or cash. Historical data shows Bitcoin tends to underperform during rate hike cycles, as evidenced by its crash in 2022.

Second, the legislative process for the Clarity Act is not smooth. There is clear partisan disagreement on digital asset regulation: Republicans lean toward leniency to foster innovation, while Democrats emphasize consumer protection. Even if the bill gains initial support before July 4, subsequent amendments and votes could be delayed by political wrangling. If the final version is heavily modified—for example, imposing stricter KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements or restrictions on decentralized finance (DeFi)—markets may be disappointed and sell off.

Third, technical signals show Bitcoin hovering near key resistance levels. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin failed multiple attempts to break $120,000 in Q2 2025, forming a 'double top' pattern. If the Clarity Act's positive catalyst fails to drive a decisive breakout, technical selling could intensify. Additionally, on-chain data indicates that long-term holder (LTH) positions have recently declined, suggesting some 'smart money' is taking profits—often a warning sign of a market top.

US Stock Perspective: Opportunities and Risks Coexist

For US stock investors, the 'green forest' from the Clarity Act is not a risk-free feast. In the short term, news-driven momentum could trigger impulsive rallies in related stocks, but if the bill's details fall short of expectations, the pullback could be equally severe. For example, Coinbase's stock surged over 300% during the 2024 Bitcoin bull run, but then halved due to regulatory crackdowns. Investors should be wary of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics.

In the medium to long term, Bitcoin's compliance trend is irreversible, but the process may be fraught with twists. Key milestones to watch include: voting progress on the bill in both chambers of Congress, public statements by the SEC Chair, and whether Bitcoin can hold key support levels (e.g., $100,000) before July 4. If the Clarity Act passes smoothly, Bitcoin's 'green forest' could attract more long-term capital, but if obstacles arise, the bear's patrol may become more audible.

In summary, the Clarity Act paints an enticing picture for Bitcoin, but markets are never one-sided. In the shadows of the 'green forest', bear tracks remain visible. Investors should stay rational, maintaining caution amid optimism, and wait for the final regulatory verdict.