Clarity odds jump to 43% on Polymarket after unverified reports Trump agreed to ethics deal

Clarity odds jump to 43% on Polymarket after unverified reports Trump agreed to ethics deal

Markets

Clarity odds jump to 43% on Polymarket after unverified reports Trump agreed to ethics deal

Bettors moved the crypto market structure bill to a 43% chance of passing this year, up from a record low last week, though the reports remain unconfirmed and no bill text has appeared.

By

Shaurya Malwa

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Edited by

Jamie Crawley

Updated

Jul 21, 2026, 11:39 a.m.

Published

Jul 21, 2026, 11:19 a.m.

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Clarity Act odds jump 11 points on Polymarket after reports Trump agreed to ethics deal. (Britannica/SOPA Images)

Summary

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Polymarket traders sharply increased the implied odds that the Clarity Act will become law this year after reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision that had stalled the bill.

The ethics dispute, focused on how much top officials can profit from crypto while in office amid scrutiny of Trump’s memecoins and his family’s World Liberty Financial stake, has been the final major obstacle to the bill, whose text Democrats say they have not yet seen.

Major tokens including bitcoin, ether and XRP recorded gains following the Polymarket movement, though traders largely attributed the rally to strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.

Polymarket traders sharply raised the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year

after reports

that President Trump reportedly agreed to the ethics provision that had stalled the bill.

The market pricing whether the crypto market structure bill is signed into law in 2026 rose to about 43% on the predictons market on Monday, compared to 32% on Friday. This was its lowest level since the market started trading in January.

The jump tracked a series of reports that the final sticking point in months of negotiations had been cleared.

Democrats have not seen the bill text, a source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk, and no text has been publicly released. The White House and the offices of the senators involved had not commented.

Ethics has been the last major obstacle to the Clarity Act, which would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The dispute has centered on the extent to which political figures and other officials can profit from crypto while in office, a question sharpened by Trump's memecoins and

his family's stake in World Liberty Financial

, which financial disclosures last month showed earned him millions.

The provision was discussed at a July 16 meeting between Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate has until early August to vote.

Crypto

extended its rally

on Monday as the reports circulated. Bitcoin

BTC

$

66,346.44

traded near $66,300, around 3% higher in the last 24 hours, with ether and XRP seeing gains of around 4%. Traders pointed to the rebound in AI and semiconductor stocks, including memory makers Samsung and SK Hynix, as the main driver rather than the legislative news, though the reported ethics breakthrough added to the risk-on tone.

Polymarket

Clarity Act

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$

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