Ethereum ETF First Week: Modest Debut, Can ETH Rebound? On-Chain Activity and Capital Flow Analysis

Ethereum ETF First Week: Modest Debut, Can ETH Rebound?

The US spot Ethereum ETF began trading recently, but its first-week performance fell short of market expectations. Compared to the massive capital inflows and price surge triggered by the Bitcoin spot ETF launch in January, the Ethereum ETF saw significantly smaller inflows, with net outflows on some trading days. This has sparked widespread discussion about Ethereum's short-term outlook: Can ETH regain its upward momentum with the ETF's support?

First-Week Inflow Data: Mixed Results

According to multiple industry data providers, the spot Ethereum ETF recorded cumulative net inflows of several hundred million dollars in its first week, far below the tens of billions seen in the Bitcoin ETF's debut week. Among them, Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw substantial outflows after converting to an ETF, as some investors took profits or shifted to lower-fee ETF products. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs from leading issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity saw steady net inflows, but at a more moderate pace.

In terms of trading volume, the Ethereum ETF's average daily volume in the first week was about one-third of the Bitcoin ETF's early trading volume, indicating cautious institutional interest in Ethereum. Analysts note that while Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap with high ecosystem maturity and market awareness, the current macro environment (e.g., interest rate policy uncertainty) and the overall crypto market's cool sentiment are constraining ETF inflows.

Comparison with Bitcoin ETF Market Reaction

After the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, BTC price surged from around $40,000 to over $100,000 in the following weeks, hitting new all-time highs. This rally was driven by massive traditional capital inflows through ETFs, combined with halving expectations and spot buying. In contrast, during the Ethereum ETF's first week, ETH price only fluctuated within a narrow range, failing to replicate Bitcoin's explosive rally.

Three main reasons explain the difference: First, the Bitcoin ETF launch coincided with strong market expectations for the halving cycle, while Ethereum lacks a similar catalyst; second, the Ethereum ETF launched later, with some positive factors already priced in; third, Ethereum faces competitive pressure from alternative blockchains like Solana, leading to slower on-chain activity growth.

On-Chain Activity Changes: Activity and Staking Data

From on-chain data, the daily active addresses on the Ethereum mainnet did not show significant growth around the ETF launch, remaining relatively stable. The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi also saw no notable recovery, with some leading protocols even experiencing slight net outflows. Notably, Ethereum staking continues to increase steadily, with about 30% of ETH supply now staked, but the pace of new staking has slowed compared to earlier.

Activity on L2 scaling solutions (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) continues to rise, partially diverting transaction volume from the mainnet. This reflects a structural shift in the Ethereum ecosystem from the mainnet to L2s, which may temporarily weaken mainnet fee revenue and on-chain activity metrics but helps reduce congestion and improve scalability in the long term.

Short-Term Price Outlook: Consolidation or Breakout?

Technically, ETH price failed to break through key resistance levels after the ETF launch and is currently in a range-bound consolidation pattern. Some analysts believe that with gradual ETF capital accumulation and upcoming Ethereum network upgrades (e.g., Pectra), ETH could see a rebound in Q4. However, others warn that if macro liquidity conditions do not improve and Bitcoin fails to stabilize, ETH may face further downside risk.

From a capital flow perspective, despite the modest first-week ETF performance, institutional investors' long-term allocation intent remains. The outflow pressure from Grayscale ETHE is expected to ease in the coming weeks, and if new capital continues to flow in, ETH could regain upward momentum. Additionally, Ethereum's expanding applications in areas like RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization and decentralized infrastructure may serve as catalysts for the next rally.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; invest with caution. The data and analysis in this article are based on public information and may be subject to delays or biases. Readers should make independent judgments and bear corresponding risks.