Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool, Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $70K: Macro and Technical Analysis

Macro Shift Pressure: How Cooling Rate Cut Expectations Impact Crypto Liquidity

Recent U.S. macroeconomic data has consistently exceeded expectations, particularly labor market resilience and sticky services inflation, significantly cooling market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. According to CME FedWatch data, market bets on the first rate cut have been pushed back from March to after June, with expectations for the total rate cut magnitude narrowing sharply. This subtle shift in macro policy is directly impacting the cryptocurrency market—an asset class highly sensitive to global liquidity.

From a liquidity transmission mechanism perspective, cooling rate cut expectations imply that the U.S. real interest rate will remain elevated for longer, increasing valuation pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin, with its dual nature as "digital gold" and a risk asset, is the first to bear the brunt. According to CoinGecko data, after Bitcoin broke above $100,000 in 2024, the correlation coefficient between its price movements and the Fed's balance sheet size and federal funds rate expectations exceeded 0.7 at times. As market optimism over loose policy fades, the tendency for capital to withdraw from high-volatility assets strengthens, directly reflected in recent flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs—multiple institutions report that U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen consecutive net outflows over the past two weeks, with cumulative outflows reaching multi-month highs.

Notably, the change in macro expectations is not a one-way negative. Some analysts point out that if inflation data unexpectedly declines or the labor market shows signs of weakness, rate cut expectations could quickly rebound, bringing a strong liquidity rebound to the crypto market. The market is currently in a sensitive phase of this expectation tug-of-war.

Key Technical Battle: The Logic of Attack and Defense at the $70,000 Level

Under the dual pressure of macro headwinds and capital outflows, Bitcoin's price encountered significant resistance when attempting to break the $70,000 round number. From a technical analysis perspective, $70,000 is not only a psychological integer level but also a resonance zone for multiple technical indicators:

• Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.618 retracement from the 2024 low to the all-time high sits near $70,000, a level that has historically acted as important support or resistance.
• Moving Average System: The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently near $68,000, while the 200-day moving average (MA) is around $62,000. After being rejected at $70,000, if the price breaks below the short-term moving average support at $68,000, it could further test the intermediate zone near $65,000.
• Volume Profile: According to TradingView data, the $70,000 to $72,000 range is one of the highest volume price zones over the past three months, with significant trapped and profit-taking positions accumulated, forming a clear supply zone.

The battle between bulls and bears near $70,000 is currently intense. Bulls are attempting to push through via spot buying and leveraged funds in futures contracts, while bears are using the opportunity of cooling macro expectations to build large short positions near the key resistance level. According to Coinglass data, open interest in Bitcoin futures hit a recent high near $70,000, indicating heightened market divergence. If the price can effectively break and hold above $70,000, it could trigger short covering and chasing buying, pushing the price toward $75,000 or even higher; conversely, repeated failed attempts could lead to an accelerated decline after a "false breakout."

Market Sentiment and Capital Flows: Structural Opportunities Amid Cautious Waiting

Under the dual pressure of macro and technical factors, crypto market sentiment has turned cautious. According to Alternative.me data, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen from the "Greed" zone (above 70) two weeks ago to the "Neutral" zone (around 50), indicating cooling investor sentiment. In terms of capital flows, aside from net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has also contracted slightly, suggesting some capital is exiting to the sidelines.

However, structural opportunities still exist. The ecosystem development of major public chains like Ethereum, the implementation of Layer 2 solutions, and tracks such as RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization continue to attract long-term capital deployment. Some analysts believe the current pullback is a healthy market correction, building strength for a subsequent rally. According to Glassnode data, the Bitcoin holdings of long-term holders (addresses holding coins for over 155 days) remain near all-time highs, indicating that core believers have not been shaken by short-term volatility.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and prices may change dramatically due to factors such as policy, technology, and market sentiment. Investors should make independent investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance and bear the corresponding risks.