Nasdaq Hits Record High: Apple and Tesla Struggle, Nvidia Shines as Tech Giants Diverge

The Nasdaq Composite Index has recently hit a fresh record high, with market sentiment heating up under the dual impetus of the AI boom and expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the prosperity at the index level does not mask the divergence in performance among tech giants—Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia's latest earnings or guidance present distinctly different pictures, revealing that the driving force behind the current US stock market rally is shifting from a "broad advance" to "structural divergence."

Record High: AI and Rate Cut Expectations Resonate

The Nasdaq's strong performance is mainly attributed to the resonance of two major macro and industry logics. On one hand, market expectations for the Fed to start cutting rates within the year have strengthened. According to CME FedWatch tool data, investors' pricing of a September rate cut probability has exceeded 60%, and expectations of liquidity easing provide support for growth stock valuations. On the other hand, the continued expansion of AI infrastructure investment has led to sustained capital inflows into sectors such as semiconductors and cloud computing, becoming the main engine driving the index higher.

However, behind the index's record high, the performance of heavyweight stocks is not uniform. According to FactSet statistics, as of the latest earnings season, although the proportion of Nasdaq 100 constituents beating earnings expectations is still above the historical average, the divergence in internal guidance has widened significantly, laying the groundwork for future market volatility.

Apple: Lackluster Growth, AI Narrative Yet to Deliver

Apple's latest quarterly earnings showed a slight year-over-year increase in overall revenue, but sales of its core hardware product, the iPhone, declined, particularly in the Greater China region, where competitive pressure and weak consumer spending led to underperformance. Despite Apple unveiling its "Apple Intelligence" AI strategy at its annual developer conference, the market generally believes that the impact of this feature on hardware upgrade cycles will take several quarters to materialize.

Following the earnings release, Apple's stock price came under pressure, reflecting investor concerns about its growth ceiling. According to Bloomberg, analysts' downward revisions to Apple's earnings forecasts for the next 12 months have exceeded upward revisions, indicating a cautious shift in sell-side sentiment. Apple's valuation remains at historical highs, but the lack of new earnings catalysts makes it a representative of "steady but unsurprising" among tech giants.

Tesla: Delivery Decline, Price War Erodes Margins

Tesla's situation is more challenging. The company's latest quarterly deliveries fell year-over-year, ending years of growth. Meanwhile, to cope with weak demand, Tesla has cut vehicle prices multiple times globally, leading to a significant narrowing of automotive gross margins. According to company disclosures, its automotive business gross margin has fallen to multi-year lows. Although its energy storage business is growing rapidly, its scale is not yet sufficient to fully offset the decline in the core business.

During the earnings call, Musk reiterated the long-term vision for robotaxis but did not provide a specific timeline or regulatory progress. The market reacted coolly, and Tesla's stock price saw a notable pullback after earnings. According to data cited by Reuters, Tesla's forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from its highs at the beginning of the year but remains higher than traditional automakers, reflecting that the market's premium for its tech attributes is being compressed by earnings reality.

Nvidia: Strong AI Compute Demand, Guidance Beats Again

In stark contrast to Apple and Tesla, Nvidia continues to deliver better-than-expected results, thanks to its dominant position in the AI training and inference chip market. The company's latest quarterly data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year, and its revenue guidance for the next quarter again exceeded market consensus expectations, primarily driven by continued GPU purchases by cloud service providers and large internet companies.

Nvidia's strong performance has not only boosted its own stock price but also lifted valuations across the AI supply chain, including upstream suppliers like TSMC and SK Hynix. According to industry research firm IDC, the global AI server market is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of over 30% in the next three years, providing industry background support for Nvidia's earnings sustainability. However, some analysts warn that as competitors like AMD and Intel accelerate new product launches, and as cloud vendors develop their own chips, Nvidia's market share may face long-term erosion risks.

Market Logic Behind the Divergence

The divergence in tech giants' earnings actually reflects the battle between two main themes in the current US stock market: one is the expectation of a productivity leap brought by the AI technology revolution, and the other is the cyclical adjustment pressure facing traditional consumer electronics and the automotive industry. Capital is accelerating its flow from sectors with weaker earnings certainty to core AI computing assets, causing the Nasdaq index to hit new highs, but the breadth of the rally is narrowing.

According to Goldman Sachs data, as of the latest trading day, the top ten heavyweight stocks in the Nasdaq 100 contributed over 80% of the index's gains, while the average gain of the remaining constituents was only in single digits. This "Matthew effect" makes the index performance significantly different from the sentiment of ordinary tech stocks, and also increases market discussion about the "risk of top-heavy concentration."

Looking ahead, if the Fed delivers rate cuts and AI capital expenditure remains strong, the Nasdaq may continue to find support. However, if consumer-facing giants like Apple and Tesla remain sluggish, or if Nvidia's earnings growth shows signs of slowing, the market may face a dual correction in valuation and earnings. Investors should closely monitor the divergence trend among tech giants and whether capital will rotate from AI core assets to other sectors.