Post-Halving Miner Selling Pressure Intensifies: Can the Market Withstand the Supply Shock?

Halving Effect Transmission: Miner Revenue Plunge and Cost Escalation

Bitcoin's fourth halving was completed in 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This mechanism directly halved miners' daily new Bitcoin revenue. According to CoinMetrics data, miners' average daily revenue post-halving dropped by about 50% compared to pre-halving levels, while operating costs such as electricity and equipment depreciation did not decrease simultaneously. As a result, miners' cost basis for holding Bitcoin has shifted significantly upward—the breakeven point for some older mining rigs now exceeds current market prices, forcing miners to continuously sell inventory to maintain cash flow.

Source of Selling Pressure: Inventory Release and Hashrate Migration

Miners' selling behavior exerts pressure on the market through two main channels: directly transferring BTC to exchanges, and batch selling via over-the-counter (OTC) trades. According to CryptoQuant monitoring data, the net flow from miner wallets to exchanges post-halving once hit a nearly six-month high. Meanwhile, some inefficient mining farms have been forced to shut down, with hashrate migrating to low-cost regions (such as North America and the Middle East). Asset liquidation during this migration further exacerbates short-term supply glut. Market analysts point out that this selling pressure tends to be persistent because miners need to regularly sell BTC to cover electricity and maintenance costs, rather than clearing out in one go.

Market Absorption Capacity: Institutional Entry and ETF Liquidity

Despite increased miner selling pressure, the market's absorption capacity is also improving simultaneously. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, cumulative net inflows have exceeded the hundred-billion-dollar level. According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, the daily trading volume of ETFs as a share of the BTC spot market has been rising, providing a new liquidity pool for the market. Additionally, listed companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, with their latest quarterly reports showing further increases in positions. These institutional buy orders have, to some extent, offset miners' selling pressure, preventing a sharp unilateral decline in Bitcoin's price post-halving, instead resulting in a wide-ranging consolidation pattern.

Short-Term Price Battle: Supply-Demand Tug-of-War and Psychological Levels

The current market is in a tug-of-war between miner selling pressure and institutional accumulation. On-chain data shows that miners' holdings have fallen to recent lows, but exchange BTC balances have not surged correspondingly, suggesting that some selling pressure has been absorbed by off-market funds. Technically, after breaking through $100,000 in 2024, Bitcoin has repeatedly retraced to key support levels, but each decline has been accompanied by increased volume, indicating strong buying interest below. However, if miners' selling pace continues to outpace new demand, prices may face periodic corrections. Market sentiment indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, have retreated from extreme greed to neutral territory, reflecting increased divergence among investors regarding short-term trends.

Long-Term Perspective: Halving's Scarcity Narrative and Declining Inflation Rate

From a historical cycle perspective, halvings are typically seen as catalysts for bull markets, as the reduction in new coin supply gradually shifts the supply-demand balance. After this halving, Bitcoin's annualized inflation rate has dropped to about 0.8%, lower than gold's long-term inflation level. This means that even if miner selling pressure exists in the short term, Bitcoin's scarcity narrative remains valid in the long run. Some analysts believe that the current selling pressure is more like a normal adjustment in the early stages of a bull market rather than a signal of a trend reversal. However, whether the market can withstand the supply shock ultimately depends on the macro liquidity environment and risk appetite—if the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, funds may accelerate into crypto assets, thereby absorbing miner selling pressure.

Risk Warning

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; factors such as miner selling pressure, policy changes, and technical risks can all lead to significant price fluctuations. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and pay attention to asset diversification.