Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Hopes Surge, ETH Breaks Key Resistance Leading Altcoins

With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently signaling a more positive outlook, market expectations for the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF have surged, propelling Ethereum (ETH) past key resistance levels and making it the standout leader among major cryptocurrencies in the current rally. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown relatively modest gains during the same period, as market capital rotates from Bitcoin to Ethereum and altcoin sectors.

SEC Turns Optimistic, ETF Approval Odds Jump

According to sources close to the SEC, Chairman Gary Gensler recently displayed a subtle yet crucial shift in his stance on approving a spot Ethereum ETF during an internal meeting. Previously, the SEC had consistently rejected spot Ethereum ETF products, citing market manipulation risks. However, following the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024—which attracted billions in inflows—and the stable performance of Ethereum futures ETFs over the past year, the SEC is reassessing its position.

Market analysts note that the SEC has recently mentioned "balancing digital asset innovation with investor protection" in several public forums, hinting at the possibility of adapting the Bitcoin ETF regulatory framework for Ethereum ETF applications. According to Bloomberg ETF analysts, the probability of a spot Ethereum ETF being approved within 2025 has jumped from 30% at the start of the year to approximately 65%. This optimism is directly reflected in ETH's price action.

ETH Breaks Key Resistance, Technicals and Capital Align

Driven by the news, ETH has strongly broken through the $4,000 psychological resistance level—which it had previously tested multiple times without success—and briefly touched highs near $4,200. According to CoinGecko data, ETH's weekly gains significantly outpaced other major cryptocurrencies, and its market cap dominance has rebounded to near 18%.

From a technical perspective, after breaking $4,000, the daily MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum. On-chain data also supports this: Glassnode reports that the number of active addresses on the Ethereum network and large transactions (over $100,000) have hit three-month highs, suggesting institutional capital is accelerating into the market.

Notably, ETH's open interest (OI) expanded during the breakout, but funding rates have not shown signs of extreme overheating, indicating that this rally is driven more by spot buying than leveraged speculation, providing a healthier foundation for the uptrend.

Bitcoin's Milder Performance Highlights Capital Rotation

In contrast to ETH's strong performance, Bitcoin has been relatively subdued. While BTC has also risen modestly with the broader market, hovering around the $100,000 level, its gains have lagged behind ETH. According to TradingView data, on the same day ETH broke $4,000, BTC's daily gain was only about 1.5%, while ETH surged over 6%.

This divergence is interpreted by the market as a classic "capital rotation" phenomenon. With the positive impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF approval largely priced in, some investors are shifting their focus to the next potential policy catalyst—the Ethereum ETF. Additionally, the continued prosperity of the Ethereum ecosystem, including the adoption of Layer 2 solutions and the revival of DeFi and NFT markets, provides further fundamental support for ETH.

Some analysts believe that if a spot Ethereum ETF is ultimately approved, ETH could replicate or even surpass Bitcoin's post-ETF approval performance. Historically, after Bitcoin's ETF approval in January 2024, its price surged from $46,000 to $73,000 within three months, a gain of over 50%.

Risk and Reward: Regulatory Uncertainty Remains Key Variable

Despite the market euphoria, investors must remain wary of potential risks. First, the SEC's final decision remains uncertain. Even with a shift in internal sentiment, the SEC could still delay or reject applications, citing "insufficient evidence of market manipulation" or "new regulatory challenges posed by Ethereum's proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism." Second, if an ETF is approved, the market may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" short-term correction risk.

Moreover, macroeconomic factors cannot be ignored. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy trajectory and global geopolitical tensions could impact risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors should remain rational and manage their positions carefully while chasing trends.

Risk Warning

The above content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and carries significant risk. Readers should make independent investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance and bear the associated risks.