Crypto Long & Short: Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

Crypto Long & Short: Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

Crypto Long & Short: Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

CoinDesk Indices

Crypto Long & Short: Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

In a follow-up to his essay on sizing crypto risk, Lionsoul Global's Gregory Mall backtests bitcoin in a 60/40 across bull, bear and sideways regimes, showing how a straight bitcoin position, a large-cap basket and a trend-managed sleeve part ways and why the way you hold bitcoin can matter as much as how much you hold.

By

Gregory Mall

|

Edited by

Kim Greenberg Klemballa

Aug 5, 2026, 3:03 p.m.

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Hi readers,

Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short. This week:

In a follow-up to his essay on sizing crypto risk,

Gregory Mall

of Lionsoul Global backtests bitcoin in a 60/40, asking not what to own, but how much you can survive holding.

Top headlines institutions should pay attention to by

Francisco Rodrigues

“MetaDAO surpasses $45 million raised as platform traction drives 46% META rally” in Chart of the Week

CoinDesk will be attending the

Digital Asset Yield Summit

in Singapore on October 6th. This is an invite only private capital conference focused on digital assets.

Learn more if you are interested in joining us at the event!

Thanks for joining us!

- Kim Klemballa

Holding rules: what allocators should know about adding bitcoin to a balanced portfolio

by

Gregory Mall

, chief investment officer, Lionsoul Global

This is part two of Gregory Mall’s case that crypto allocation’s real question is size, not selection. You can read part one

here

.

Investors who treat crypto as too speculative to touch tend to frame the decision as binary. The more practical framing concerns dosage and implementation: how much bitcoin a balanced portfolio can carry and under what rule it should be held.

We tested this directly. Starting from a conventional 60/40 portfolio of global equities and core bonds, we introduced spot bitcoin at 2.5% and 10% weights with monthly rebalancing across January 2021 to March 2026. The headline results are intuitive. Adding bitcoin lifted returns and Sharpe ratios (a standard measure of return relative to risk) in strong crypto years, while the traditional core cushioned weaker ones. A small sleeve changed the shape of outcomes while leaving the portfolio’s 60/40 identity intact. Higher weights also brought more volatility and deeper maximum drawdown, and that trade sits at the heart of the sizing question.

We then repeated the exercise with a rules-based trend sleeve in place of spot bitcoin, one that toggles between bitcoin and cash on trend signals. This is the same logic behind systematic tools like the

CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator

, which signals the direction and strength of bitcoin momentum from CoinDesk Data. The trend version moderated extreme years in both directions. It landed between the plain 60/40 and the spot mix on risk and return, improving drawdown behavior at the cost of some upside.

What the regimes reveal

Splitting the window into bull, bear and sideways markets by the 200-day moving average sharpens the picture considerably. In bull regimes both approaches beat the plain 60/40, though the trend version retained much of the upside on a more controlled path. Bear regimes produced the widest gap. Spot exposure transmitted more of crypto’s drawdown into the broader portfolio, while the trend sleeve, designed to step away from persistent downtrends, kept losses shallower and the ride more survivable.

Sideways markets deserve more attention than they usually receive. Range-bound conditions, where prices churn without a clear direction, offer no strong trend to reward conviction and no clean rebound to rescue poor timing. Through those stretches, direct bitcoin exposure struggled to justify its added volatility, while the rules-based sleeve had a better chance of avoiding risk without reward. Real portfolios spend a great deal of time in exactly these noisy, indecisive transitions.

The forward case

Three structural forces will shape how these choices play out. The post-ETF market is more flow-sensitive, so demand shocks travel quickly and can amplify both trends and reversals. Supply growth is anchored by the 2024 halving and will keep shrinking. Regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions continues to separate investible projects from speculative noise, raising the premium on transparent benchmarks and institutional-grade products.

These charts map the risk personality of each allocation choice. They make no claim to predict the next cycle. Portfolios that look excellent on a return chart can still prove uninvestable once their drawdowns become intolerable, and quieter portfolios often compound better because investors actually stay in them. Risk is experienced as much as it is measured. For allocators, the useful question concerns the holding rule that governs bitcoin exposure, and whether that rule keeps emotion from overriding discipline when it matters most.

Read the full report

.

Headlines of the Week

By

Francisco Rodrigues

This week’s headlines show institutions are now taking a larger role in crypto trading even as the industry’s push for U.S. regulatory certainty stalled. Still, Wall Street giants are pushing for progress.

Institutional crypto trading hits a record 72% as Wall Street reshapes the market

: Institutions generated 72% of spot volume on Wintermute’s OTC desk in the first half, up from about 61% in the second half of 2025, as retail participation declined.

Wall Street giants back the Clarity Act as its Senate window closes

: BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs and SoFi endorsed the market-structure bill, but Senate leadership later confirmed it would receive no floor time before the summer recess.

BlackRock debuts tokenized access to $311 billion of European money-market funds

: The asset manager introduced 12 tokenized share classes across six funds and 15 markets using JPMorgan’s Kinexys blockchain platform.

BNY targets $8.6 trillion transfer-agency market on blockchain rails

: The bank is adding an onchain ownership ledger to a business servicing $8.6 trillion across 7.6 million accounts. It later selected Galaxy to add staking to its custody platform.

First U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to close as inflows dwindle

: Hashdex will liquidate its $14.7 million DEFI fund after Aug. 17 as assets and inflows remain concentrated in products operated by BlackRock and Fidelity.

Chart of the Week

MetaDAO surpasses $45 million raised as platform traction drives 46% META rally

Cumulative capital raised on MetaDAO crossed $45 million following $5.4 million raised in July alone. This expanding platform adoption coincided with strong market performance, with $META trading up 46% MTD.

Listen. Read. Watch. Engage.

Listen:

“

Wall Street giants back $15M push to quantum-proof Bitcoin as the CLARITY Act nears a do-or-die deadline

,” on CoinDesk’s Public Keys from the floor of the

NYSE

.

Jennifer Sanasie

is joined by

Charles Schwab

Head of Crypto Research

Jim Ferraioli

,

Galaxy

Head of Firmwide Research

Alex Thorn

and

FalconX

Head of Derivatives

Griffin Sears

.

Read:

In Crypto for Advisors

,

Aaron Brogan

of

Brogan Law PLLC

analyzes why the Clarity Act may be falling short of industry needs. Then, in “Ask an Expert,”

Trevor Koverko

weighs in on the bill’s potential implementation.

Watch: “

BNY moves $8.6T fund business onchain

,” with

Jennifer Sanasie

on CoinDesk Daily.

Engage:

CoinDesk Research released the July 2026 Stablecoins & Tokenized Assets Report. "

Tokenized RWA Hits $32.1B Record as MiCA Era Begins and Stablecoin Market Dips

.”

Looking for more? Receive the latest crypto news from

coindesk.com

and market updates from

coindesk.com/institutions

.

CoinDesk Indices

Crypto Long & Short

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Latest Research

The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance

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Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.

By

CoinDesk Research

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Commissioned by

Binance

Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.

Why it matters

:

Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.

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