Bitcoin Halving Effects Emerge: Miner Daily Revenue Hits Yearly Low, Price Support Faces Restructuring

As Bitcoin successfully broke through the $100,000 mark in 2024, market sentiment soared. However, behind the price prosperity, miners are experiencing an unprecedented income winter. The latest on-chain data shows that the continued effects of the Bitcoin halving have pushed miners' daily revenue to a yearly low, a change that is quietly reshaping the underlying support logic of the crypto market.

Halving Effect: Lagged Manifestation of Supply Shock

Bitcoin's block reward halving every four years is a rigid rule written into its code. The fourth halving in April 2024 reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Although the price did not fluctuate violently on the halving day, the impact on miner revenue has a clear lag—as difficulty adjustments gradually adapt and transaction fee proportions fluctuate, miners' actual revenue is only fully exposed to the pressure of supply contraction several months after the halving.

According to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the recent daily total revenue of Bitcoin miners (block rewards + transaction fees) has fallen to its lowest level of the year. This figure has significantly retraced from the highs at the beginning of the year. Despite the price remaining in historical high territory, miners' fiat-denominated revenue has been directly halved due to the reward reduction, and the continuous increase in network hash rate has further diluted the output efficiency per unit of hash power.

Revenue Structure Shift: Fees Become Key Variable

The most significant change in miner revenue structure post-halving is the temporary surge in the proportion of transaction fees. In the early days after the halving, due to the activity of the Ordinals protocol and BRC-20 token ecosystem, on-chain transaction congestion pushed fees to high levels, and at times miners' fee income even exceeded block rewards. However, as market heat cooled, fee income quickly declined, and miners' revenue once again became highly dependent on block subsidies, making their risk resistance extremely fragile.

Glassnode statistics show that the current proportion of fees in miner revenue has fallen from nearly 30% in the early post-halving period to single-digit percentages. This structural return means that miners' sensitivity to price has greatly increased—under the established fact of reward halving, only sustained price increases can maintain their fiat revenue balance. If the price stagnates or corrects, miners will be forced to sell more Bitcoin to cover electricity and equipment costs, creating potential selling pressure.

Miner Behavior: From Hoarding to Forced Selling

On-chain data reveals a subtle shift in miner behavior. Over the past few months, the net outflow of Bitcoin from miner addresses has increased significantly, especially among small and medium-sized mining farms with higher operating costs. According to CryptoQuant's miner position change indicator, miner wallet balances have fallen to a two-year low, indicating that they are accelerating liquidation.

This selling behavior is not due to pessimism about the market, but a passive choice under survival pressure. According to industry media reports, some mining companies have begun to sell mined Bitcoin directly through over-the-counter (OTC) trades or exchanges immediately, rather than hoarding for price increases as in the early bull market. This short-term increase in supply, to some extent, offsets the buying power brought by spot ETFs, becoming one of the factors suppressing upward price momentum.

Reassessing Support for Bitcoin Price

Traditional views hold that miners are natural sellers in the Bitcoin market, and their cost line (i.e., the breakeven mining price) forms an invisible support for the price. When the price falls below the average miner cost, miners are forced to shut down, hash rate declines, and after difficulty adjustment, costs decrease, forming a price bottom. However, this mechanism is weakening under the current market structure.

On one hand, large mining companies have locked in profits in advance through public listings and futures hedging, increasing their tolerance for short-term price fluctuations and reducing the possibility of panic selling. On the other hand, the globalization of the hash rate market and differences in electricity costs have rendered the concept of a "single cost line" obsolete. According to estimates from F2Pool, the average electricity cost for miners across the network is still significantly below the current price, meaning miners are not yet facing widespread shutdown risk, but the profit margins of marginal miners have been greatly compressed.

More critically, the decline in miner revenue weakens their role as "passive buyers." Before the halving, miners typically used part of their mining revenue to purchase new equipment or expand capacity, providing additional support for market demand. Currently, miners are forced to shift from "net buyers" to "net sellers," and this role reversal substantially weakens medium-term price support.

Future Outlook: Hash Rate Shakeout and Market Rebalancing

The sustained low miner revenue will likely trigger a new round of hash rate shakeout. According to BTC.com data, the total network hash rate has recently seen a slight decline, with some older mining machines being phased out. Although this process is painful, it helps to clear the industry and improve the efficiency and profitability of remaining miners.

From historical cycles, the post-halving miner revenue trough often lasts for several months until the price enters a new major uptrend. Currently, Bitcoin's consolidation above $100,000 is both a digestion of the halving supply shock and the market waiting for new catalysts. If spot ETF inflows continue and the macroeconomic environment warms up, miner revenue is expected to recover with rising prices; conversely, if the market enters a prolonged sideways trend, miner selling pressure could become the last straw that breaks the price.

For investors, miner revenue data has become a leading on-chain indicator more advanced than the price itself. Closely monitoring changes in miner address balances, fee proportions, and hash rate dynamics may capture market turning signals earlier than candlestick charts. In the aftermath of the halving effect, the survival status of miners is becoming a core yardstick for measuring Bitcoin's bull-bear resilience.