Bitcoin Halving Imminent: Miner Selling Pressure vs. ETF Inflow Battle Intensifies

On the Eve of the Halving: Two Sides of the Supply-Demand Balance

Bitcoin's fourth halving event is now in its final countdown. Historical patterns show that this mechanism-driven supply contraction, occurring every four years, often becomes a key inflection point for market sentiment and price trends. However, the current macroeconomic environment and market structure are unlike any previous halving—the selling pressure from miners ahead of the block reward reduction and the sustained institutional buying from spot ETFs are creating an unprecedented tug-of-war.

Miner Selling Pressure: An Inevitable Choice Before Cost Base Rises

As the halving approaches, Bitcoin miners are experiencing a dramatic shift in revenue expectations. Post-halving, the mining reward per block will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively halving the daily new supply from miners. According to industry analytics, some older mining rigs will face operational losses after this halving. To prepare for the impending revenue drop, miners often sell a portion of their Bitcoin inventory weeks to months before the event, raising fiat currency for equipment upgrades or debt repayment. Recent on-chain data shows an increase in Bitcoin transfers from miners to exchanges, interpreted by the market as a typical pre-halving selling signal. This short-term supply release theoretically exerts downward pressure on price.

ETF Inflows: The Anchor of Institutional Buying

In stark contrast to miner selling pressure, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded strong net inflows since their launch. According to public market data, several major Bitcoin ETFs have seen combined net inflows totaling tens of billions of dollars in the month leading up to the halving. These funds primarily come from traditional financial institutions, pension funds, and wealth management platforms, whose investment logic is based on Bitcoin's long-term asset allocation value as digital gold, rather than short-term price fluctuations. The sustained buying from ETFs effectively absorbs most of the selling from miners, and on some trading days, it completely covers the amount of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by miners. This structural buying is a phenomenon never seen in the previous three halving cycles.

Supply-Demand Battle: Who Will Dominate Short-Term Price Direction?

From a supply-demand model perspective, the daily new Bitcoin supply will drop from about 900 BTC to about 450 BTC after the halving, while the average daily buying volume from ETFs is reportedly several times that number. This means that even if miners accelerate selling before the halving, as long as the net inflow trend of ETFs does not reverse, the market remains in a state of supply shortage. However, the complexity of the battle lies in the fact that miner selling pressure and ETF inflows are not perfectly synchronized. Miners tend to concentrate their selling before the halving, while ETF inflows are sustained but occasionally volatile. If there is a combination of ETF net outflows and miner selling around the halving, short-term prices could experience sharp volatility. Conversely, if ETF inflows remain stable, it could push Bitcoin higher after the halving.

Historical Reference and Current Differences

Looking back at the three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs within 12 to 18 months after each event. However, all three previous halvings occurred in an environment with very low institutional participation and no ETFs. In 2024, Bitcoin has already broken through the $100,000 mark early in the year, a price level that already incorporates some pre-pricing of the halving's positive impact. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, global regulatory dynamics, and macroeconomic uncertainties are all influencing market risk appetite. Therefore, simply applying historical patterns may be risky.

Conclusion: Battle Intensifies, but Long-Term Logic Unchanged

Overall, the battle between miner selling pressure and ETF inflows before the halving essentially reflects a contest between short-term supply shocks and long-term demand structure upgrades. In the short term, the market may experience significant volatility due to the shifting balance of these forces. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, the supply contraction from the halving is deterministic, and the trend of institutionalized, compliant capital inflows represented by ETFs is also sustainable. As long as Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value is not disproven, the ultimate balance in this battle may lean toward the demand side.